News
Access-control hardware installed base expected to reach 2.3 billion units in 2016
August 2016 by Alexander Derricott, market analyst, IHS Technology
The total installed base of access control readers, panels, credentials and
electronic locks is expected to reach 2.3 billion by 2016, up from 1.8 billion in
2012. About 95 percent of the installed base in 2016 was credentials, which is not
surprising due to the requirement that each user have a card or pass. However, the
growth of credentials is slowing, even though it makes up a majority of the market,
because the turnover of credentials is much higher, as employees move jobs and
people accidentally misplace them.
Panels make up the smallest portion of hardware, with less than 1 percent share, but
this category comprised 32 percent of revenue in 2016. Due to the ability for panels
to cover a large number of readers, the quantity required is far lower than the
number of readers, which are needed at each entry point. If credentials are removed
from the installed base, panels make up 18.8 percent of all installed hardware and
38.3 percent of revenue.
The continued growth of electronic locks has started to affect the overall access
control market. Previously, readers made up the second-largest segment of hardware,
but in 2016 they have finally be overtaken by electronic locks. Electronic locks
will make up 16.7 percent of the installed base, while readers will make up 16.6
percent. The growth of electronic locks, especially in the residential and utilities
sector, will continue its upward trend. The installed base growth may start to slow,
as the mechanical nature of the locks shorten their life cycles, in comparison to
readers.
Within the various vertical markets examined by IHS Markit, the commercial sector
holds the largest portion of the installed base in 2016, with 495 million units or
21.6 percent share. The governmental sector is the second largest, with 17.1 percent
of the total installed base in 2016. These two vertical markets have been the
earliest adopters of access-control products, since they share a growing need to
secure their premises and properly audit entry and exit.
The residential sector is expected to rise the fastest from 2012 to 2016, growing at
a compound annual growth rate of 7.4 percent, from a small base of 47.6 million
units installed in 2012. There will be continued growth in this sector, as the use
of electronic access control products has started to gain momentum. The sector does,
however, suffer from more frequent replacements, since a greater portion of this
market is electronic locks with mechanical moving parts that can wear out.
Consequently, as replacement shipments rise, the installed-base growth will begin to
slow sooner than it has in other markets.
Information in this Research Note is based on the latest IHS Markit Access Control
Intelligence Database - Installed Base, which is intended to assist companies active
in the access control industry to understand changing market dynamics, and identify
opportunities for growth.
