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Have you got your pandemic influenza plans in place? Prevention, management, healthcare and recovery are the most important parts of a sound pandemic plan. If you haven’t got all the elements in place your business is at risk.

Background

Based on the historic evidence and the prevalence of the avian ‘flu virus (H5N1), a pandemic influenza outbreak is thought to be inevitable by the World Health Organisation (WHO). In the last century alone, there have been three pandemics, resulting in the deaths of c.53 million people worldwide.
The current threat comes from a human form of the H5N1 virus, increasingly infecting poultry stocks and humans across the globe.

H5N1 Virus

Estimates of the death toll from H5N1, should it become a human pandemic, range up to one billion (1).

Worryingly, the scientific evidence suggests that an H5N1 pandemic may be most closely comparable to the 1918 pandemic, which killed c.40 to 50 million people (thought to have also developed from an avian influenza). Once H5N1 is able to spread more easily from human to human, you have pandemic potential. The problem is that no one can forecast exactly when this will happen.

The progressive spread of the H5N1 virus amongst poultry has gone from nothing to covering most of Asia and Europe in a matter of years. From 2003, the WHO started to record the cases of human infection and fatalities and Fig.1 shows the increasing pattern clearly. Even though the more recent cases have shown a drop in the human mortality rate, this is not necessarily good news, as this sort of pattern has often preceded a pandemic. We could be approaching a critical moment in the pandemic timeline.

Health Protection

A vaccine cannot be produced with any certainty until the exact strain of pandemic influenza has emerged, and even then it is likely to take at least 6 months to produce (and that’s before it is distributed and administered).

Currently, the next best form of defence is antiviral medication. Evidence suggests that if taken within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms, antiviral medication can prevent efficient replication of the ‘flu virus in the human body. These drugs can be used both as a symptomatic treatment and as a preventative medicine. Early treatment in influenza has been seen to shorten illness duration, reduce the severity of the symptoms and could remove the need for hospitalisation.

The UK government has a detailed pandemic plan in place and has stockpiled sufficient antiviral drugs to treat 25% of the population - at this stage intentions for distribution remain unclear, but treatment looks set for key workers including the emergency services and healthcare workers. However, with pandemic ‘flu having the potential to infect up to 50% of the population, the government scheme simply cannot cover UK businesses. Businesses are urged instead to realise the importance of protecting their workforce before a pandemic strikes.

Business Prepardness

Whilst businesses generally recognise the enormity of the threat of a pandemic, the vast majority have yet to put contingency plans in place. Looking at the presenting evidence the only conclusion that can be drawn is that preparation must be a necessary defence.
Many businesses are getting ahead of the game by procuring antiviral medication schemes to ensure continuity during a pandemic and to be certain that they are the quickest to resume normal business during the extensive recovery process. There is no doubt that there will be major social and economic consequences throughout and in the aftermath of a pandemic.

Workers will be absent for greatly extended periods - they will need time away from work to care for their dependents and may become part of the ‘stay-at-home worried well’. HCC has been offering its antiviral medication scheme over the last three years to FTSE 100 companies, many of whom are preparing for at least 50% employee absenteeism.
As the WHO predicts that supplies of antiviral medication will be inadequate at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter, it is the individual companies that will, in the end, need to determine what level of protection they wish to offer their business, workforce and supply chain.

It is certain that commercial organisations will be needed to help in the distribution of medicine and the provision of professional advice. Early consultation on a business pandemic planning scheme is therefore essential - creating a comprehensive plan will require time and resources. Having a plan already in place is the only way an organisation can be sure that it can protect its workforce immediately should the virus spread.

The evidence suggests a pandemic influenza outbreak could be imminent, and the necessity to prepare is clear. The survivors will be those businesses that are fully prepared to weather the pandemic storm.

1 - New Scientist 4 May 2005